Dragon Capital: Vietnam will exceed growth predictions

Dragon Capital: Vietnam will exceed growth predictions

May 6, 2026

Fixed Income Asia

Vietnam’s economy is set to grow by above 9% in 2026, outpacing that off all other south-Pacific countries, according to Dragon Capital, Vietnam’s largest asset manager.

Driven by manufacturing, high-tech exports and strong foreign investment, Dragon Capital’s forecast for more than a 9% increase in GDP exceeds the estimates of 6.3% by the World Bank and 7.5% by UOB and AMRO.

Tung Dang, Chief Economist at Dragon Capital, points to four key factors contributing to Vietnam’s growth.

First, Vietnam has solidified its role in global supply chains, ranking as a top three global manufacturing hub in Asia by 2026. Driven by competitive labour costs, strategic trade agreements and considerable infrastructure investment Vietnam has successfully transitioned from low-cost textiles into high-tech electronics.

Second strong exports, particularly in electronics and laptops, are expected to continue with the US a major recipient of Vietnamese goods. In 2025, Vietnam's trade performance sustained its positive momentum, posting a trade surplus of USD 20.0 bn as total exports grew by c.17% over the same period last year.

Vietnam is also proving a popular destination for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), with Dragon Capital analysis revealing the country will attract US$25 billion from overseas companies in 2026.

FDI is further bolstered by significant private and public sector investment contributing US100 billion and $25 billion respectively.

FTSE Russell confirmed on 8 April it would upgrade Vietnam to emerging market status in September 2026, which will contribute to further economic growth. Dragon Capital's statistics show that the profits of 1,500 listed companies have all shown stable growth, projecting a 15% increase in 2026.

Further, Resolution 68, the landmark directive introduced in 2025 that promotes private sector development, innovation, digital transformation, is driving strong recovery and growth for the private sector.

Finally, Vietnam’s growing ‘golden population’ where the majority of individuals are of working age - combined with rising urbanization - are driving structural growth.  Such conditions are often described as paying a ‘demographic dividend, which is expected to last until around 2036–2042.

Related posts