Han Dieperink: Jobless growth

February 6, 2026

Artificial Intelligence Labor force

_{This column was originally written in Dutch. This is an English translation.}

We are on the eve of a new economic era. Whereas in the 1980s factories closed because companies moved to low-wage countries, jobs are now disappearing while corporate profits are breaking records.

By Han Dieperink, written in a personal capacity

The technology sector is the clearest example of this development. Large tech companies are posting record profits, but at the same time they are announcing mass redundancies. Amazon is cutting 30,000 jobs, with Meta and Salesforce following suit with similar numbers. What is remarkable is that these redundancies are not due to disappointing results, but are taking place amid exceptional profit growth. The culprit can be summed up in two letters: AI.

This is not a temporary phenomenon. Since 2022, employment in the tech sector has been shrinking, while profits continue to rise. Whereas companies used to hire people in order to grow, they can now produce more with fewer employees. Productivity per employee has skyrocketed since 2020: twice as fast as in the previous decade. This development is not limited to Silicon Valley, but is spreading like wildfire throughout the entire economy.

But why is this not leading to mass unemployment? The answer is as simple as it is disturbing: there are also fewer people looking for work. Labour participation has never recovered since the coronavirus pandemic. Baby boomers have retired en masse, and stricter immigration rules have also recently come into force. In the United States alone, this could lead to a decline of 1.5 million workers. The result is a shrinking labour force that happens to be in balance with the shrinking number of jobs.

This is good news for investors and businesses. Higher productivity means more profit at lower costs. The stock markets are celebrating, and there is no bubble like there was in the 1990s: the profits are real. But for employees, the story is different. Whereas economic growth used to automatically mean more jobs, that link has now been broken. A thriving economy no longer guarantees job security.

This development also has consequences for inflation. If companies can produce more with fewer people, this puts downward pressure on prices. After all, labour costs account for a large part of production costs. Central banks will have to adapt their policies to this new reality. Lower interest rates no longer automatically lead to more employment when AI takes over tasks. The old economic models no longer work.

We must ask ourselves what this means for our society. In the 1980s, the disappearance of factory work led to social unrest and entire regions losing their economic base. Now something similar is looming, but this time for office workers, programmers and other knowledge workers who always thought they were safe. No profession seems immune to the advance of artificial intelligence anymore.

The challenge for the coming years is how we are going to distribute the fruits of this productivity growth fairly. If only shareholders benefit while employees lose their jobs, an unequal society will emerge that is unsustainable in the long term. We need new ideas about work, income and the distribution of wealth in an era in which machines are increasingly taking over human work. Perhaps it is time for a basic income, or new forms of work sharing.

Jobless growth is no longer a distant prospect; it is our new reality. The question is not whether we can stop it, but how we deal with it. History teaches us that technological revolutions ultimately lead to progress, but the transition can be painful. It is up to us to ease that pain and ensure that everyone shares in tomorrow's prosperity.