abrdn: Focus Fed op inflatiebestrijding

abrdn: Focus Fed op inflatiebestrijding

March 14, 2022

Monetary policy
Inflatie (04)

Hieronder vindt u twee commentaren van vermogensbeheerder abrdn. De eerste is van senior econoom Luke Bartholomew en gaat in op de bijeenkomst van de Bank of England. Daaronder een vooruitblik op de Fed-bijeenkomst. Deze is afkomstig van econoom James McCann.

Luke Bartholomew over de Bank of Enland:

“The Bank of England looks set to tighten monetary policy at this week’s meeting. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been a key focus for markets recently and that will be playing into the Bank’s decision making. Normally central banks “look through” the inflationary impact of the kind of large movements in commodity prices the crisis has caused. This is because monetary policy tends to work over a different time horizon than commodity market moves. However, with inflation already very elevated in the UK and inflation expectations drifting higher, the Bank will be keen to demonstrate its commitment to the inflation target. As such the Bank is likely, as it did last month, to increase interest rates by 0.25%, with the possibility we once again see some votes for a larger increase. The prospect of higher interest rates in an economy already likely to slow very sharply, combined with already volatile markets, is likely to be an unappealing prospect for some investors.”

James McCann over de Fed-bijeenkomst:

“The Fed’s job is not getting any easier. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sparked market turmoil and sent commodity prices soaring, both of which present headwinds to the economy. However, higher energy and food prices will also exacerbate an already deeply uncomfortable inflation backdrop, and the Fed is unlikely to tell markets that it can slow its plans for policy tightening in the face of the worsening outlook. Indeed, its updated dot plot – showing the median interest rate view on the FOMC – is expected to pencil in hikes in almost every meeting this year, and a peak in the Fed Funds rate above 2%. Chair Powell might soften this message slightly, by telling markets that the Fed will be nimble around a fast evolving growth and inflation environment. But the underlying message is likely to be that bringing inflation under control.”

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