Payden & Rygel: A productivity puzzle

Payden & Rygel: A productivity puzzle

2 maart 2026

Artificial Intelligence Arbeidsmarkt

Fear that Al will radically boost productivity and eliminate jobs circulated through markets again last week. Interestingly, though, rapid productivity growth has not (yet) plagued the economy in the current cycle.

Historically, more rapid productivity growth has coincided with stronger job growth. For example, the 1950s and 1970s expansions saw both strong productivity gains and job growth. Meanwhile,in expansions with weaker investment and productivity, such as the 2010s, job growth was also relatively weak.

Could Al upend the relationship, with tireless, perpetually healthy, always-working AI agents replacing workers? It's possible, but not our baseline. Perhaps, in the short run, Al can reduce the need for hiring for repetitive tasks.

However, in the long run, history suggests that new technologies often create new industries and more jobs that need to be done. After all, 60%of today's jobs didn't exist before the1940s, yet a much larger share of the prime-age (25-54) population has a job today (80%) than in the 1940s (63%)!

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