Payden & Rygel: Year-to-date change in 30-year government bond yields

Payden & Rygel: Year-to-date change in 30-year government bond yields

13 oktober 2025

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Japan elected its first female prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi - a self-described Thatcherite, a former drummer in a heavy metal band, and, perhaps most important, a protégé of Shinzo Abe.

Abe's economic policy, braided 'Abenomics', advocated more fiscal spending to achieve sustainable 2% inflation. Japanese yields were already on the rise this year, but the belief that Takaichi's ascension would continue Abenomics sent Japanese 30-year government bond yields surging to new multi-decade highs.

However, it's not Japan alone roiling global bond markets. Thirty-year government bond yields are higher year-to-date as worries about the hangover of Covid-era deficits linger. In some cases (e.g. Germany), governments have promised to spend more, while in others, governments have collapsed after just a few hours (e.g. France).

Oddly enough, the country about which the most fiscal-related ink has been spilt, and whose government is shut down due to a budget impasse, has lower 30-year yields than it did to start the year. In more ways than one, America remains exceptional.

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