Bob Homan: AI makes analysts more human

Bob Homan: AI makes analysts more human

Asset Allocation Artificial Intelligence Asset Management

By Bob Homan, Head of ING Investment Office

What is the added value of an equity analyst now that AI can effortlessly take over the calculations? The answer lies in unrivalled imagination.

For a long time, the stock analyst had a clear-cut profile. Someone who was good with figures and skilled at building models. Someone who could spend hours tweaking assumptions about revenue growth, margins and financing costs. Whoever managed their spreadsheet best went the furthest. But that profession is changing. It isn’t changing overnight, but it is changing steadily. And yes — there it is again — artificial intelligence (AI) is accelerating that change. AI is, in fact, remarkably good at traditional analyst work: processing large amounts of data, running through scenarios, extrapolating consistently, generating profit estimates. AI does it faster and without a coffee break.

The analyst’s imagination

This does not render the analyst redundant, but it does shift the focus of the profession. The questions that really matter to investors are, after all, increasingly less about the next set of quarterly figures. After all, thanks to AI, everyone has access to virtually the same information. No, when it comes to finding shares that will outperform the rest over the long term, something else becomes decisive: the analyst’s imagination. Which products or services will catch on? Which trends will continue and which will fade away quietly? Where will pricing power emerge and where will it evaporate?

This brings another quality to the fore: the ability to connect economic, technological and social developments and use them to sketch plausible visions of the future. This calls for a different type of analyst: one less focused on perfect point predictions and more on scenarios, ranges and alternative paths. Someone who not only reads annual reports, but also understands consumer behaviour, technological adoption and changing preferences, combined with a feel for culture and the spirit of the times.

Imagination without discipline is of little value

At the same time, we mustn’t romanticise this. Imagination without discipline amounts to little. It is the combination that makes the difference: devising scenarios and critically testing them. Not falling in love with one’s own narrative, but being prepared to adjust it when reality turns out differently.

In a sense, AI makes the analyst’s profession more human. As machines get better at calculations, the importance of people who provide direction, context and meaning also grows. Spreadsheets aren’t going away, but they’re taking more of a back seat. The analyst is shifting from guardian of ‘earnings per share’ to a role as a guide, someone who helps navigate through uncertainty. And that is precisely why the analyst is more relevant than ever.