Aberdeen: Investeringscyclus in AI blijft intact
Ray Sharma-Ong, Deputy Global Head of Multi-Asset Bespoke Solutions at Aberdeen Investments, comments on the Fed’s interest rate decision. He explores in more detail what the Fed’s next steps might be.
Among other things, he says that ‘the Fed appears to be favouring patience over hasty tightening, a policy mistake that Warsh is unlikely to dare make in his first major decision’. He also shares his view on where the stock markets are headed.
Fed inches slightly towards neutral
The Fed has responded to rising inflation risks by acknowledging the risk of war driven energy price increases. This was underscored by 3 new dissents from FOMC members who objected to retaining an easing bias in the policy statement.
Expectations have moved from pricing a full rate cut by 2027 to a 50% probability of a rate hike by 2027, reflecting concerns that the Fed may be more willing to follow through, as it transitions from dovish to neutral amid increased inflation risks.
While the Fed’s stance is inching towards neutral, the policy dynamics are likely to evolve further once Kevin Warsh formally assumes the role of Chair. Should energy supply constraints through the Strait of Hormuz ease by May or June 2026, the Fed is likely to reassess the risk of inflation persistence, as the energy pass through channel into broader prices would diminish. In this scenario, the need for a restrictive policy response would be reduced. We expect the Fed to favour patience over reactionary tightening, a policy error that Warsh is unlikely to risk as his first substantive decision.
We do not expect a repeat of 2022
Against this backdrop, we expect equities, a forward pricing asset rather than a spot reflection of current conditions, to remain supported for the following reasons:
a) Positioning remains light despite the April rally.
- Retail equity inflows are running around 50% below January 2026 peaks
- Institutional equity allocations are near their lowest levels since mid-2025
- Cash holdings in funds remain elevated at around 4.5%.
b) The rally itself has been driven primarily by hedge fund short covering, with data estimates indicating nearly 3x more short covering than new long initiation, suggesting the move remains technically under owned rather than euphoric.0
c) The macro inflation backdrop is more constructive today than in 2022. The Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker currently sits at around +4.0%, compared with +6.5% during 2022, indicating lower second round wage price pressures.
d) Policy rates are higher today than in 2022, with the ECB deposit rate around neutral at 2%, while the Fed remains approximately 3.75%, above neutral, providing buffers against higher inflation.
Energy independence and Tech to benefit
We expect market bifurcation to occur. When the Strait of Hormuz reopens, energy prices will moderate but remain structurally above pre conflict levels, maintaining a geopolitical risk premium.
In this environment, we expect markets to reward regions with energy resilience and strong tech related growth drivers. The US stands out due to its energy independence, while the US, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan are well positioned to benefit from continued technology and AI driven demand. These regions are better able to absorb higher input costs while preserving margins and earnings momentum, supported by stronger structural growth engines.
This view is reinforced by earnings results and forward guidance released on 29 April 2026 by Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta, which collectively point to materially higher AI and cloud related capital expenditure plans for 2026. Combined hyperscaler capex is now estimated at over USD 700bn, signalling that the AI investment cycle remains intact, broad based, and durable, rather than cyclical or front loaded. We expect this sustained spending to continue flowing through to AI hardware, semiconductor, and component manufacturers, particularly across Japan, Korea, and Taiwan, further enhancing earnings visibility and medium term growth prospects for North Asian technology supply chains.
