Dragon Capital: Vietnam on course for MSCI emerging market status upgrade
Major market reforms including the rollout of a central counterparty (CCP) clearing system and wider foreign ownership limits could see Vietnam receive MSCI Emerging Markets status by 2028.This is according to Tung Dang, Chief Economist at Dragon Capital.
Research from Dragon Capital, which is Vietnam’s largest asset manager, reveals the country - which has just been confirmed by FTSE Russell to be upgraded to emerging market status in September 2026 - is expected to deliver GDP growth of above 9% in 2026.
This growth, which makes Vietnam one of the strongest economies in the south-Pacific region, is driven by progressive political reform; the development of Vietnam Electronic Digital Identification system which will provide a secure, biometric-linked replacement for physical documents; and the country’s ambition to become a regional powerhouse by 2030.
These factors in addition to the prospect of a CCP and the ongoing flow of Foreign Direct Investment into Vietnam are all raising the prospect of an MSCI upgrade before the end of 2028.
Over 2025, Vietnam’s economy delivered a strong performance, with GDP growth of about 8%, a budget surplus of nearly $10 billion, while inflation kept stayed at 3.5%. Retail services and manufacturing both expanded by 9.2%, while disbursed FDI climbed to $27.6 billion.
Looking to this year, Dragon Capital says Vietnamese corporate earnings will grow by around 19%, bringing market valuations back to average levels and creating an attractive environment for long-term accumulation.
