Outlook 2026: Richard Abma (OHV Vermogensbeheer)

December 31, 2025

Outlook

^{This text was originally written in Dutch. This is an English translation.}

By Richard Abma, Chief Investment Officer, OHV Asset Management

Where are the biggest opportunities and threats for 2026?

'As inflation fell in 2025, the European Central Bank was able to implement several interest rate cuts, but the aftershocks of years of tightening remain palpable. Short-term interest rates have fallen sharply, while long-term rates remain stubbornly high due to structural budget deficits, geopolitical uncertainty and the renewed focus on defence and energy transition. This tension is keeping capital market interest rates at a solid level and creating an attractive return climate for bond investors.

Following the strong recovery of the bond markets in 2023, 2024 and 2025 – during which many investors were already able to benefit from higher coupons and price gains – the outlook remains favourable. The era of virtually interest-free markets is over. Those who actively respond to interest rate and credit differences now can also achieve stable returns in the coming years.

The greatest opportunity lies in selectivity and active portfolio management. Differences between sectors, countries and maturities are increasing, making fundamental analysis decisive once again. Corporate bonds with solid balance sheets and limited maturities offer an attractive mix of return and stability, while medium-duration government bonds are adding value again.

In addition, private debt continues to grow as a structural asset class. Companies remain dependent on non-bank financing, which means that well-structured SME loans with collateral or government guarantees continue to offer a risk premium of 1.5 to 2.5 percentage points above government bonds.

The main threats are geopolitical fragmentation, rising government debt and liquidity risks in the event of sudden market shocks.

In short, 2026 marks the consolidation of a new interest rate era: away from liquidity-driven returns, back to active management, credit insight and discipline.'