Outlook 2026: Jacob Vijverberg (Aegon AM)

December 18, 2025

Outlook

^{This text was originally written in Dutch. This is an English translation.}

By Jacob Vijverberg, Head of Asset Allocation / Portfolio Manager Global Diversified Income, Aegon Asset Management

What are the economic prospects for 2026?

'Geopolitical tensions and the rise of artificial intelligence will continue to shape the economic climate in 2026. The United States' trade policy remains volatile; the Supreme Court may declare some tariffs invalid. So far, the negative impact of the trade war has been limited, but we expect it to increase somewhat in 2026. In the longer term, the loss of confidence, the need to become more independent from the US, and the further erosion of institutions, including the independence of the central bank, will have a greater negative impact.

China is working to reduce dependencies, thereby strengthening its position in the trade war, while the US is maintaining its technological lead. Europe is lagging behind and needs time to become more independent in the areas of technology, energy and defence. Europe must tread carefully in the changing geopolitical landscape and invest heavily in defence and bringing back manufacturing.

Major investments in data centres and energy infrastructure to support AI will stimulate growth, particularly in the US. In the longer term, AI can contribute significantly to innovation and productivity growth worldwide.

In Germany, a fiscal stimulus package may provide slight support for growth, but challenges such as high energy costs and a lag in innovation remain.

Overall, global growth will slow in 2026 as geopolitical uncertainties and trade barriers outweigh the stimulus provided by AI. The risk of a more significant slowdown or recession also remains.'