Outlook 2025: Richard Abma (OHV Asset Management)
By Richard Abma, Chief Investment Officer, OHV Asset Management
What is the economic outlook for the rest of 2025?
‘Financial markets are fluctuating between hope and fear due to the import tariff war unleashed by President Trump. This seems likely to dampen real economic growth for 2025. Consumers are becoming more uncertain and are facing higher product prices. Two-thirds of the American and European economies are driven by consumer spending. Consumer confidence therefore has an important influence in the short term. On the other hand, the job market in the US and Europe remains strong. There is still an acute shortage of personnel in many sectors. This is an important counterweight to the uncertainty surrounding the trade war. Consumers have income and will continue to spend it in the medium term. Central banks in Europe and the US will lower short-term interest rates by another 2 to 3 steps of 0.25% in the course of 2025. This will also support the economy and is likely to prevent a recession in 2025.
Where are the biggest opportunities and threats for investors?
‘The biggest opportunities lie with healthy companies with low debt levels that have a strong market position and are responding to secular trends. These tend to be technology-related companies that are also responding to the growing need for AI applications for businesses and consumers. These types of companies have been hit hard by the trade war recently and therefore offer interesting entry levels for the medium term. Looking at the fixed-income side of investments, I see opportunities in the private debt environment. The interest premium that investors receive here for giving up a bit of liquidity and complexity is currently very high. As more institutional investors make the move to private debt, I expect this premium to decline.
Technology-related companies are once again offering attractive entry levels for the medium term.
