Aberdeen: Commentary on UK employment data
Luke Bartholomew, Deputy Chief Economist, comments on the UK employment figures released this morning.
Prior to the tariff news, the UK labour market looks to have been behaving largely as expected, with no signs of any stress in anticipation of the increase in national insurance. Wage growth is slowly moderating from still elevated levels. The big question is whether the increase in the national living wage will stall this process.
For now, there is nothing that should put the Bank of England off cutting in May. And with international energy prices having fallen sharply recently, some of the likely increase in headline inflation in coming months will be more muted than previously expected. This should make it easier for the Bank to deliver further cuts later this year.
