Aberdeen Standard Investments: ‘Staatsgeleide groei in China verliest momentum’

March 5, 2019

De verlaagde groeiverwachting van 6-6,5% die China bekendmaakte, bevestigt slechts dat de regering in Peking dit keer niet naar stimuleringsmaatregelen grijpt. Cruciaal voor een bestendige groei op de lange termijn blijft de bereidheid van China om markthervormingen door te voeren en de staatscontrole op de economie te verminderen. Dat zegt Jeremy Lawson, econoom bij Aberdeen Standards Investments, in een commentaar op de recente Chinese groeiprognose.

Andere hoofdpunten van zijn commentaar:

Hier het volledige commentaar:

“The downward revision to the official growth target is just a confirmation of the fact that this time around they won’t resort to a multitude of stimulus policies to conjure up growth. That’s no bad thing. The country’s state-led growth model clearly paid huge dividends over the last 30 years but it is now running out of steam. Investors might be obsessed with the latest stimulus measures or the tenor of the trade war but the fact is that the reforms that the President Trump is demanding matter much more for China than the US. Accelerating market reforms and reducing the dominance of the state will be vital for China to complete its shift towards a more sustainable growth trajectory.

“To that end, it is the new foreign investment law due for approval at the Congress that we will be paying closest attention to. If China chooses to take steps to ban forced technology transfers, ease joint venture requirements and reduce interference with foreign firms, it will be a nascent sign that policy is shifting in a more positive long-term direction. This week’s Congress is not intended to address or solve all of the country’s long-term challenges. That is a multi-year project. But the signals for future growth may finally be improving.”