Crédit Mutuel AM: The Fed maintains the status quo

Crédit Mutuel AM: The Fed maintains the status quo

29 juli 2025

Rente Fed

By François Rimeu, Senior Market Strategist, Crédit Mutuel Asset Management

Following its July meeting, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected, unsurprisingly, to keep its key interest rates unchanged.

Key points:

  • Key interest rates: The Fed is expected to keep its current range at 4.25% to 4.50%, in line with market expectations.
  • Communication: Jerome Powell is expected to reaffirm that the Fed is “well positioned” to maintain a wait-and-see stance. The U.S. economy, supported by low unemployment, remains solid, while inflationary risks continue to lean to the upside, particularly due to the introduction of new tariffs.

In summary

The Fed should confirm its cautious approach, maintaining a wait-and-see balanced stance. The Fed is expected to leave open the possibility of rate cuts later this year, depending on the evolution of several key factors: the magnitude, timing and duration of a potential inflation rebound; the labor market trajectory; and the Committee’s confidence in the proper anchoring of inflation expectations. This meeting should be a non-event. The Jackson Hole symposium (August 21–23) could provide an opportunity to reassess the monetary path in light of upcoming data.

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