Monex: ECB vooruitblik -  maakt ECB ook een U-turn?

Monex: ECB vooruitblik -  maakt ECB ook een U-turn?

7 maart 2019

Monetair beleid
Bart Hordijk - Monex Europe.jpg

Hieronder volgt een vooruitblik in het Engels van Bart Hordijk, valuta-analist bij Monex Europe, op de ECB beleidsvergadering vanmiddag.

Today all eyes will be on the European Central Bank’s Rate Statement, Press Conference and of course the ECB’s most painful meeting with reality today; the updated Growth Forecast. The omens are dire to the extent the question is not if the current 1.7% growth forecast for 2019 will get downgraded, but by how much. We expect a growth downgrade towards the region of 1.3-1.4% for the year, which is actually still conditional on the optimistic assumption growth in the Eurozone will start to return towards long term potential growth of 0.4% per quarter. A projected growth of below the 1.3% would mean a direct hit for the euro as it reveals the expectations of the ECB of the growth trend for the remainder of the year have taken a turn for the worse.

Another central question is whether the ECB will prolong, and maybe even extend its current Targeted Long Term Refinancing Operations program to provide extra liquidity to banks. We consider there is a high likelihood they will at least admit it has been discussed in the Governing Council, opening the door for announcing the extension in April if economic surprises continue to tilt to the downside. After dovish turns of other major central banks like the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Bank of Canada and of course, the Federal Reserve, the way appears paved for the ECB to follow suit. The data at least gives the ECB every justification to step further on this dove’s trail.

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