Han Dieperink: The deal of the century for Denmark

January 20, 2026

_{This column was originally written in Dutch. This is an English translation.}

By Han Dieperink, written in a personal capacity

Donald Trump wants Greenland, “whether they like it or not”. The White House is not ruling out military options and has announced 10% import tariffs on eight European countries participating in a Danish mission on the island. The Netherlands, Germany, France, the United Kingdom and the Scandinavian countries will be presented with the bill for what Trump considers undesirable interference with his Arctic ambitions.

The European response was not long in coming. The ambassadors of the 27 EU Member States met for emergency talks. Commission President Von der Leyen warned that threats of import tariffs undermine transatlantic relations. And the EU has a response ready: a package of countermeasures worth 93 billion euros, originally drawn up in case last year's trade talks failed. Jeans, motorcycles, aeroplanes, American export products that could soon become significantly more expensive in Europe. Some voices are even calling for American companies to be denied market access.

On Thursday evening, EU leaders will meet for an extra summit, convened by António Costa, President of the European Council. The time for appeasement and compromise seems to be definitively over. Even the Democrats in the American Senate are turning against Trump. Chuck Schumer called the tariffs “bad for the American economy and our allies in Europe” and announced his intention to block them.

We are heading for a trade war that nobody wants and that nobody benefits from. But amid this geopolitical arm wrestling, there is a more elegant solution. One that suits the man who wrote The Art of the Deal and who claims to be the best negotiator in the world.

Two hundred billion dollars

Two hundred billion dollars. That is the price at which everyone can leave the negotiating table as a winner. Let's be honest about why the American president wants Greenland. He calls it “essential to national security” and claims that the island is under threat from China and Russia. The latter seems exaggerated.

There is little evidence of an acute Chinese or Russian threat, but the underlying strategic point is certainly valid. Greenland is the largest island in the world and is located at a crossroads that will only become more important in the coming decades. As the polar ice melts, new shipping routes are opening up that could fundamentally change global trade.

The Northern Sea Route and the Northwest Passage shorten the distance between Asia, Europe and America by thousands of kilometres. Whoever controls the access points to these routes holds a strategic trump card.

In addition, Greenland has huge reserves of rare earth metals, uranium, and possibly oil and gas. In a world that is becoming increasingly dependent on technology – from smartphones to electric cars to defence systems – these raw materials are critically important. China currently dominates the market for rare earth metals. Access to Greenland's reserves would make America less vulnerable to that dependence.

And then there is the military dimension. The Thule Air Base in Greenland has been a crucial part of the American missile warning system for decades. Full sovereignty over the island would transform the American position in the Arctic from guest to host.

For two hundred billion dollars, Trump gets all this without firing a single shot, without damaging alliances, without a trade war that harms the American economy.

What Denmark gets

Now for the sales side of this transaction. Denmark's national debt is approximately 130 billion dollars. With two hundred billion on the table, Copenhagen could pay off that debt in one fell swoop, down to the last krone. From one day to the next, Denmark would be debt-free, a fiscal position that virtually every country in the world would envy.

Consider what that means. No more interest charges on the national budget. Complete freedom to invest in infrastructure, healthcare, and the energy transition, or to reduce taxes. Denmark could finally put the 2008 financial crisis and the coronavirus pandemic behind it and usher in a new era of fiscal sovereignty.

And let's be honest: Greenland costs Denmark money. The Danish kingdom subsidises the island with hundreds of millions of euros annually. The relationship is one of historical ties, not economic gain. A sale would remove that subsidy burden and at the same time generate an astronomical amount of money.

What Greenland gets

This is where the deal gets really interesting. Greenland has a population of approximately 57,000. Subtract the Danish debt repayment of 130 billion dollars from the sale price, and 70 billion dollars remains.

Divided among the population, that is more than 1.2 million dollars per person. Every Greenlander – man, woman and child – becomes a millionaire. A family of four receives almost five million dollars.

This is not a side issue in the negotiations. It is the core of a deal that works for all parties. The Greenlandic population, which is rightly wary of a forced transfer of power, will receive economic security for generations in return. Not a colonial takeover, but a voluntary transition with substantial compensation.

Of course, conditions would have to be set. Protection of Greenlandic cultural rights, language guarantees, autonomy over local matters, comparable to the status the island already enjoys within the Danish kingdom. But with a million dollars per person as start-up capital, the conversation about those conditions becomes considerably more constructive.

The cost of the alternative

Compare this scenario with the current course. Trump is imposing import tariffs on eight allies. The EU is preparing countermeasures worth 93 billion euros. The transatlantic relationship, which was already under pressure, is tearing apart even further. And all this while Europe and America need each other more than ever to defend Ukraine.

The irony is painful. Trump wants Greenland to make America safer, but his method of obtaining it weakens the West as a whole. Every euro that Europe spends on a trade war with Washington is a euro that does not go to defence. Every diplomatic row over Greenland is attention that is not focused on Moscow or Beijing.

Chuck Schumer is right: these tariffs are bad for the American economy and for its allies. But the Democrats are unlikely to be able to block them without Republican support. And so the train thunders on towards a confrontation that no one will win.

The Art of the Deal

Donald Trump once wrote a book about negotiating. Its core message was simple: a good deal is one in which both parties feel they have won. One in which the relationship remains intact for future transactions. One in which creativity wins out over confrontation.

Two hundred billion dollars for Greenland is such a deal. America gets its strategic position. Denmark gets financial freedom. Greenland gets economic security. The NATO alliance remains intact. And the world gets a precedent for how superpowers can realise territorial ambitions without war or coercion.

Of course, Copenhagen will publicly reject this proposal. Sovereignty is not for sale, they will say. But every negotiator knows that an initial “no” is rarely the final word. The only question is whether Washington is prepared to put the right amount on the table instead of threatening tariffs and tanks. Two hundred billion dollars. Denmark debt-free. Every Greenlander a millionaire. America gets its Arctic footprint. That's not capitulation. That's The Art of the Deal.

More columns by Han Dieperink