Bob Homan: Navigating between a distant and a near horizon

January 13, 2026

Outlook Long Term Investing

_{This column was originally written in Dutch. This is an English translation.}

By Bob Homan, Head of ING Investment Office

The outlook for the next ten years is not particularly optimistic, but 2026 is expected to be an excellent year for equities. How can long-term investors use this information?

In theory, investing seems simple: buy high-quality companies, spread your risks and, above all, be patient. This lesson is easy to understand, has proven itself time and time again and is endorsed by experts worldwide. Yet every day, many people enter and exit the market, and overall volatility seems to be increasing rather than decreasing. In practice, patience has become a scarce commodity. Not because markets are more volatile than they used to be, but because we ourselves are becoming increasingly restless.

Of course, some people earn their money from short-term investing. Much of this trading is computer-driven, with models that trade on the basis of momentum and thus reinforce existing market movements, an effect that is further amplified by the popularity of index investing.

Short-term investors do not necessarily behave irrationally. However, they do cause the market to sometimes deviate significantly from the actual value, which is difficult to determine. This is because short-term investors are not interested in the value of a company, but merely in whether the share price is expected to be higher or lower tomorrow or next week.

These differences in investment horizons mean that volatility will always exist, that markets are sometimes expensive and sometimes cheap, and that even for long-term investors, some tactical adjustment (within certain limits) can be useful. In other words, there is money to be made from the impatience of others.

Lately, I have seen many investment forecasts for 2026. The general tone: the outlook for the next ten years is not particularly high, but 2026 is expected to be an excellent year for equities. But when long-term investors are guided by optimism for 2026, have they not actually become short-term investors? Horizon management seems to be the new norm.