BlackRock: Historische stap Bank of Japan onderdeel van weloverwogen plan

March 19, 2024

Het historische besluit van de Bank of Japan om voor het eerst sinds 2007 de rente te verhogen is onderdeel van een weloverwogen plan om het monetaire beleid te normaliseren, stelt Ben Powell, beleggingsstrateeg voor de APAC-regio bij het BlackRock Investment Institute.

'De centrale bank heeft dit proces van normalisatie heel nauwkeurig gemanaged zodat de markten niet ontregeld zouden raken. Een belangrijke reden om de rentestap nu te nemen is dat er voldoende bewijs is dat de lonen sterk stijgen. Wij denken niet dat de BoJ na deze stap meteen haar monetaire beleid agressief zal aanpassen.'

Het BlackRock Investment Institutute blijft overweight in Japanse aandelen, zelfs na de recente koerswinsten, en underweight in Japanse staatsobligaties. 'De vooruitzichten voor Japanse aandelen zijn nog steeds heel goed', aldus Powell.

Hieronder vindt u de volledige reactie van het BlackRock Investment Institute:

The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) historic step of raising rates for the first time since 2007 marks an end to an extraordinary era of unconventional monetary policy aimed at pulling Japan's economy out of decades of deflation or low inflation and stagnating activity. The BoJ nudged its policy rate up from -0.1% to a 0.0-0.1% range, scrapped its cap on 10-year government bond yields and said it would stop buying equity exchange-traded funds and real estate investment trusts.

The BoJ's policy shift is part of a careful and considered normalization of monetary policy and not a knee-jerk leap into monetary tightening, in our view. The central bank has so far managed that normalization process – including the steady relaxation of yield curve control over the past 15 months – without destabilizing markets. A key reason for today’s decision was evidence of strong wage growth.

The largest federation of trade unions, Rengo, last Friday reported that workers at the country's biggest firms are set to receive the most substantial wage hike in more than three decades. The BoJ's confidence in a return to sustained inflation, supported by a revival of wage growth, has paved the path to end negative interest rates after eight years. But after this hard-won return to inflation, we think the BoJ is unlikely to now sabotage this progress by aggressively tightening policy – a point Governor Ueda reinforced at the press conference. 

The upshot? The macroeconomic backdrop in Japan remains conducive for risk, in our view. The BlackRock Investment Institute is overweight Japanese equities even after their recent healthy gains and remains underweight Japanese government bonds. We see the outlook for equities buoyed by healthy earnings momentum, accelerating shareholder-friendly reforms unfolding across Japan Inc. and valuation support from negative real interest rates. The sun is not setting on Japanese equities, in our view; it is merely rising on a new horizon.