abrdn: Volgende rentestap ECB eerder neerwaarts dan opwaarts

abrdn: Volgende rentestap ECB eerder neerwaarts dan opwaarts

October 26, 2023

Interest Rates ECB
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Luke Bartholemew, Senior Economist at abrdn, comments on today's ECB meeting.

'No real surprises from the ECB today, with policy rates kept on hold as expected. There has been some speculation that the ECB could tweak its balance sheet policy or the way it treats commercial bank resolves, but there were no changes here. However, we wouldn’t rule out future developments in this space particularly if Eurosystem losses continue to mount.

We expect the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve to also keep rates on hold in coming weeks, with developed market central banks all coming to the end of their hiking cycles.

While the ECB wants to keep open the possibility of a further hike in interest rates, we think the next move in rates is much more likely to be down than up. Eurozone activity data is pointing to recession-like conditions in the bloc, while the US-led sell-off in bond yields will further tighten European financial conditions, weighing on growth. While geopolitical uncertainty could cause a spike in energy prices and so slow the path of inflation back to target, it would take a very large inflationary shock to get the ECB to tighten further.'

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