PIMCO: In the 'Middle Path'

26 oktober 2026

Rente ECB

Konstantin Veit, Portfolio Manager at PIMCO, shares his comments ahead of this week’s ECB meeting:

At its October meeting, we believe the European Central Bank (ECB) will keep the deposit facility rate (DFR) unchanged, at 2.5%, and expect a unanimous decision.
The market is pricing around 70bps of rate hikes. We believe risks are skewed towards fewer hikes but acknowledge exceptionally high uncertainty.
Our baseline expectation is for the ECB to hike in December, entering marginally restrictive territory.
When facing energy shocks, ECB strategy is not to react to energy prices, but it will react to risks of higher energy prices becoming embedded in inflation.
While we are currently seeing higher inflation, there are no signs yet that it is becoming embedded. Indirect effects remain contained and second-round effects are not evident.
The inflation outlook will be higher in 2027 and 2028 than expected a few months ago. While growth has been resilient, since the last ECB meeting long-term interest rates have risen and Euro area country spreads have widened notably, which will slow growth and reduce pass-through by more than projected in its September exercise.
Taken together, this suggests the ECB remains in the “middle path” for monetary policy that President Lagarde laid out earlier this year.

Gerelateerde berichten