PIMCO: U.S. GDP Preview

PIMCO: U.S. GDP Preview

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Tiffany Wilding, Economist at PIMCO, shares her expectations for US economic growth in the first quarter.

  • The initial report for U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first three months of 2023 (1Q23) should confirm that the US economy grew. We look for real GDP to have grown by 2.5% quarter-over-quarter seasonally adjusted annual rate (q/q saar), as strong consumption growth is offset by a drag from trade and inventories. 
  • The increase in consumption growth is likely attributable to unseasonably warm weather and the absence of a new COVID-19 variant outbreak. 
  • However, momentum faded towards the end of the quarter, and the softness in March will likely drag down the quarterly consumption calculation for the second quarter of 2023, which we are currently tracking at 0.5% q/q saar.