J.P. Morgan: China industrial production normalising more quickly than retail sales

J.P. Morgan: China industrial production normalising more quickly than retail sales

20 juli 2020

China

China’s economy rebounded strongly in the second quarter of the year, with real GDP growing 11.5% on the previous quarter

As one of the economies that was first-in and first-out in terms of the pandemic lockdown, China has been one of the leaders in restarting economic activity. The industrial side of the economy has been faster to normalise, with production rising to 4.8% year over year (y/y) in June. Retail sales have also improved from a trough of -20.5% y/y in February, but at a slower pace. Looking forward, consumption should continue to recover as domestic activities resume and consumers are able to draw on ample savings from the pandemic. However, nearly a fifth of China’s GDP comes from exports, and so the economic outlook will also depend on how quickly key trading partners, such as the US and Europe, are able to recover.

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