Monex: ECB verlaagt rente en start opkoopprogramma weer op
Hieronder volgt een commentaar in het Engels van Ranko Berich, hoofd research van Monex Europe, op het rentebesluit van de ECB.
At first glance, the ECB has not quite thrown the kitchen sink at the eurozone economy. The QE package at 20bn/m is shy of market expectations, which were 30 billion a month. But the Bank is clearly back in the business of serious policy easing and more aggressive action could easily be taken in response to a worsening in conditions.
There are arguments for the ECB to hold back some of its ammunition. The current growth slowdown is focussed in the manufacturing sector, particularly in Germany, and there are as yet few signs of the slowdown hitting consumers. The Eurozone as a whole is now a ‘high beta’ economy that is extremely sensitive to external demand, particularly from China. A sudden improvement in global conditions – for example, due to a US-China trade resolution - could easily see Eurozone growth pick up rapidly. In this context, it makes sense for the ECB to reserve some ammunition.
With the current pace of asset purchases at 20bn and tiered deposit rates in place, there is clearly room for the ECB to ease further – and depending on forward guidance from Draghi, and eventually Lagarde, markets may end up getting ahead of the curve and selling EUR pre-emptively.