Goldman Sachs: COVID resurgence restrains recovery repricing
Strengthening data and repricing in inflation globally adds to case for higher yields. Firm US employment report strengthens recovery outlook, though recent growth in coronavirus cases could cap near-term yield upside. FOMC minutes suggest forward guidance is coming soon, but YCT isn’t; rate vol should remain well-anchored even absent YCT. Reductions in net bill issuance can extend even amid potential increase in fiscal outlays. ECB comments lean against any further expansion in asset purchases, skewing risks to higher yields. Front-end HICP still underpriced relative to our projections, add 2y HICP longs. BOJ refrains from adding long-end purchases amid supply increases, furthering the case for curve steepening.
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