One emerging issue is that China doesn’t want companies to buy Nvidia’s H20 chips anymore for national security reasons – remember the reports that these chips might include location trackers, potentially used to spy on clients. The good news: under the new agreement, Nvidia could export a downgraded version of the Blackwell chip to China until further notice. The bad news: the Chinese government could still blacklist these chips as forbidden imports from the US.

While things are getting complicated, Nvidia and AMD might have still improved their position in China. Nvidia, for example, is expected to make over $20bn in revenue from China this year, if they accept to share $3bn of it with the US government — that is, if Chinese buyers keep purchasing their products.

On the US side, since the chip export ban is motivated by national security concerns, there’s no guarantee business will continue smoothly. But with the Trump administration, nothing is guaranteed anyway.

Consequently, Nvidia’s share price retreated 0.35% yesterday after flirting with its all-time high, while AMD opened lower, swung into gains, but closed with a small loss.

In China, however, the reaction this morning is clearly positive: SMIC — the leading Chinese chipmaker — is up more than 5% on hopes that some demand could be diverted to the domestic brand.

Elsewhere, Trump confirmed that gold imports will remain untaxed. Tariffs on bullion would have had major repercussions for flows into the US, which mainly come from Canada, Mexico, and Switzerland—nations already unsettled by US trade measures. Avoiding the tariff serves US interests by keeping these flows intact. Gold prices are firmer this morning after yesterday’s slump, also supported by Trump’s remarks that his meeting with Russia this week will be ‘a feel-out’ session, with no resolution to the Ukraine war unless Kyiv cedes territory—a statement that dampened earlier optimism. Oil prices also rebounded, with US crude potentially set to return to or above the $65 per barrel level, a key Fibonacci support from this year’s decline and a strong base for the spring–summer rally driven by geopolitical tensions.

Still in commodities, lithium surged after Chinese battery maker CATL failed to renew a license at a major mine in Jiangxi province for at least three months. That mine produces around 3% of global output. The Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF jumped 5.5%, driven partly by expectations that China is intentionally curbing capacity amid a global glut—lithium prices have fallen 90% since 2022—and slowing EV battery demand. Cutting supply could support prices and help China counter deflation. The ETF has lost about two-thirds of its value since its 2022 peak and recovered only around one-fifth since its March low. On the flip side of the trade, Fidelity’s Clean Energy ETF fell 1.65% as higher lithium costs may squeeze margins.

Broadly, risk appetite in US equities was limited ahead of today’s CPI release, which is expected to begin reflecting tariff-driven cost pressures as companies pass on expenses to consumers. Slowing services inflation could still offset goods inflation to a degree. But economists expect the headline CPI to post its largest monthly gain this year, with both headline and core readings rising on an annual basis. Core CPI—the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) key metric—is projected to return to 3%, moving further from the 2% policy target. A hotter-than-expected CPI print would likely reduce rate-cut expectations, push the US 2-year yield and the dollar higher, and pressure equity valuations. A softer reading would bolster Fed doves, lower short-term yields, and support stocks—assuming confidence in the data remains intact after the BLS drama earlier this month. The agency’s new chief faces close scrutiny over whether its statistics will remain insulated from political influence.

One certainty: small and mid-cap firms need lower rates to withstand trade disruptions. The S&P 500 equal-weighted index continues to lag its market-cap-weighted counterpart, underscoring how the post-April rally is being carried mainly by Big Tech—and how narrowing market breadth could magnify any future correction. Any sign that tariffs aren’t yet impacting consumer prices would be welcome news for the Fed’s dovish camp and for investors outside the technology sector.