Thijs Jochems: Trump and the Teslamites: EU, what now?

May 19, 2025

_{This article was originally written in Dutch. This is an English translation.}

Donald Trump's policies have caused a seismic shift in geopolitical relations in record time. The EU is responding with a reactive policy. Why is there so much support for Trump in the US, and what is essential in EU policy to preserve our democracy and prosperity as effectively as possible?

By Thijs Jochems, Advisor and Private Investor

The EU considers Trump's actions to be madness. However, many Americans do not find it so strange and accept his self-enrichment and lies as part of the deal. After all, all politicians are corrupt. During the Biden administration, the government deficit was around 7% in 2023 and 2024. In addition, according to some studies (Goldbeck 2024 and Lapierrer et al. 2024), increased compliance regulation led to additional costs of 1% to 2% of GDP annually. Americans traditionally dislike government interference. Looking at Europe, the average American does not understand why the US should foot the bill for protecting the EU, while the EU has used the money saved on defence to further build its welfare state. When there are protests in the EU against raising the retirement age and many elderly Americans are still trying to keep their heads above water by working two jobs, it is understandable that they approve of Trump's actions against the EU.

Tackle the (re)distribution issue and resolve it sufficiently to take the wind out of the populists’ sails.

Trump and the Teslamites: a parallel with Putin's oligarchs

Under the guise of ‘America First’, Trump is working hard to establish an autocracy. His many ‘executive orders’ are often unconstitutional. Court rulings confirming their unconstitutional nature do not stop Trump. The trias politica, the very foundation of a democracy, only functions if court rulings are also enforced. Can Trump ‘just like that’ transform a democracy such as the US has been for the last 200 years into an autocracy?

In 2017, Harvard professors Ziblatt and Levitsky wrote ‘How Democracies Die’ in response to Trump's election in 2016. Two important conclusions: democracies do not collapse because of revolutions, but because they are eroded from within, and a determined minority of 25% is enough to overthrow a democratic system. Trump is rapidly eroding democratic rules and institutions, and Trump supporters fully support him. He could well succeed in his quest to establish an autocracy. Trump is not only an admirer of Vladimir Putin. He is almost a textbook example of how Putin has gone about his business, including curtailing the free press to eliminate political opponents. Like Putin, Trump is creating a common enemy: the countries that have robbed poor Americans of their jobs.

There are more similarities between Trump's style of governance and Putin's, but one of the most striking is his collaboration with a group of ultra-rich individuals who now wield excessive influence over policy and governance. Just as Putin has favoured a network of oligarchs with state contracts and political favours, Trump has built close ties with the ‘Teslamites’: billionaires from the technology, oil and media sectors. Within a few weeks, Musk replaced Verizon as the US government's supplier with his own company, Starlink.

The EU's most important weapon is its economic importance to the US and China.

The real problem in Western democracies

It is crucial to realise that Trump is a symptom of growing discontent in Western democracies and not the cause of rising populism. This is a development that has been going on for over 35 years. Studies in the US (including the Federal Reserve Board's Survey of Consumer Finance 2020) show the enormous imbalance in income and wealth development. In the US, the top 10% of the population now accounts for approximately 50% of consumption, and over the past 35 years, the top 1% has accumulated approximately 40 times as much wealth as the bottom 50%.

The EU presents a less extreme but similar picture. This imbalance leads to discontent and provides fertile ground for populism. Over the past 35 years, traditional political parties have failed to address this growing inequality in society. Basic needs such as housing have become increasingly difficult to access for large groups in society. It is therefore not surprising that populism in the EU has risen from less than 5% around 1995 to nearly 30% today.

What is the EU doing and what more should it do?

It is essential that the EU accelerate its efforts to strengthen its defence and invest in areas such as technology and energy. However, if the EU wants to be able to offer sufficient counterweight to the US and China, its economic importance to the US and China is its most important weapon, certainly in the short term. The EU can only play this card if it truly acts as a single bloc, for example by making all defence purchases for the EU jointly.

Even more important, however, is that the EU tackles the causes of rising populism. This requires the EU to focus not only on ‘extinguishing the Trump shock’. Solving the internal problems that play such a significant role in populism is, if possible, even more important. And the biggest problem is the issue of (re)distribution.

In the US, internal redistribution is failing, and Trump is looking for a solution outside the US. That is the trap the EU must not fall into. Tackle the issue of (re)distribution and resolve it sufficiently to take the wind out of the populists' sails. According to the UN definition (Brundlandt Commission 1987), a sustainable society is ‘development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs’. Broad support for necessary climate policy will be difficult if ever-larger sections of the population see their basic needs unmet.

In addition, the EU must be able to take decisions more quickly. If this requires democratic (majority) decisions that conflict with the rule of law (the agreements as laid down), then so be it. As long as it cannot be determined by one party alone.

Current legislation and regulations must also be amended. This must be done in such a way that the EU can get moving again. At present, both in the Netherlands and in the EU, we have come to a virtual standstill in too many areas.

Some conclusions

In ‘Why Nations Fail’ (Acemoglu, Robinson), Acemoglu writes the following about democracy: ‘Every society is organised by its elite (...) and (...) democracy is the only political system in which the elite cannot simply plunder society.’ That is why we must protect our democracy.

If the EU wants to adequately protect its prosperity and democracy, it will have to tackle the underlying causes of growing populism very quickly and effectively.