Monex: ECB legt lat voor normalisatie hoger
Monex: ECB legt lat voor normalisatie hoger
Hieronder volgt een kort commentaar in het Engels van Ima Sammani, valuta analist bij Monex Europe op de persverklaring van de ECB over de strategieherziening.
Today’s announcement by the ECB can be perceived as net dovish in the short-term by markets, as the new symmetric inflation target gives the central bank ample room to run accommodative monetary policy for longer without having to fight markets. Over time, the central bank will include owner-occupied costs in their inflation measure, which will allow them to raise inflation synthetically should the eurozone’s stubbornly low inflation rate fail to increase over the medium term. The extent to which housing is included in the inflation measure, both by weighting and composition, depends on the inflation trajectory over the medium-term and how achievable the path towards normalising policy is over the coming years.
The highly anticipated news has helped EURUSD climb higher over the course of today’s session, rebutting the broader G10 market move into haven currencies, as concerns over growth remain prevalent. By committing to a policy stance that will be growth supportive over the recovery period, the euro is merely reacting to the prospect of downside risks to the growth outlook dissipating somewhat.