Columbia Threadneedle: Trade is not the only drag on growth

Columbia Threadneedle: Trade is not the only drag on growth

February 5, 2020

Financial markets
Aandelenkoersen

By Adrian Hilton, Head of Global Rates and Currency Investments Fixed Income

Entering 2019, our main expectations were for slower growth, easier monetary policy globally and continuing pressure on bond yields. At a high level, that is how the year played out. But the path to those outcomes has at times surprised us.

We always assumed trade tensions would hang over global manufacturing during 2019. But real economic damage began to crystallise much more quickly than we had forecast because of the US’s aggressive ramping up of tariffs, especially after the collapse of bilateral talks in May. Since then, the deterioration in the trade environment has accelerated to leave global manufacturing on the brink of recession.

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