Outlook 2021: Mary Pieterse-Bloem (ABN AMRO)
Door Mary Pieterse-Bloem, Member of the Investment Committee at ABN AMRO Private Banking
What is the economic outlook for 2021?
The positive vaccine news supports our conviction in a strong and sustained acceleration in global economic growth in 2021. Still, the recovery will remain incomplete and uneven. Against this background, we expect central banks to keep monetary policy extremely accommodative. The ball is very much in the court of governments in 2021, to make their fiscal stimulus effective.
What are the biggest opportunities and threats for investors?
Interest rates are now at zero or have even turned negative in virtually all Western countries, and we expect this to persist in the years ahead. These low or negative interest rates have major repercussions for investors. First off, low interest rates weigh down expected returns, which will be lower than what we’ve been used to going forward.
Returns will be realized mostly via equities. Low interest rates also impact the way investors diversify investments in their portfolios. In the fixed income space we favour corporate bonds and Emerging Market bonds. Investors should also increasingly look towards alternative fixed income categories.