Aberdeen Standard Investments: Markten opgelucht na eerste verkiezingsronde Brazilië

8 okt 2018

Vermogensbeheerder Aberdeen Standard Investments verwacht een run op Braziliaans waardepapier na de eerste ronde in de Braziliaanse verkiezingen, doordat de kans op het aanpakken van Braziliës dure pensioenstelsel en de hoge schuldenlast is vergroot. “De markt slaakt een zucht van verlichting, omdat nu duidelijk is dat de linkse kandidaat Haddad vrijwel zeker geen president wordt”, zegt Edwin Guttierez, hoofd obligaties uit opkomende markten bij ASI.

“This is a clear indication about which way the political wind is blowing in Brazil. The presidency really is Bolsonaro’s to lose now. There will be a strong rally in Brazilian assets today as financial markets move to assume that Bolsanaro will become Brazil’s next President in the second round of the election later this month. As much as anything this is the market breathing a sigh of relief that the left wing candidate Haddad, whose policies would not have helped Brazil get out of its current economic hole, will almost certainly not become President now.

“There’s more going on than Bolsanaro winning the first round by a big margin though. A big part of Bolsonaro’s appeal is the fact that he’s not part of the political establishment that has so wholly lost its credibility in recent years. But it is also because he’s got a credible plan for how to deal with two of Brazil’s most urgent economic problems: the cost of its pension system and its stock of debt. Tackling those issues has probably become harder as a result of this election. His party has won a bigger bloc in Congress than they previously had and the terrible results of some of the other parties might mean he gets some defections, which should help him.

“But overall, power within Congress is now going to be split amongst a larger number of parties. This is going to make the necessary horse trading that is part and parcel of Brazilian politics harder. While Brazil has undergone a big shift in terms of party politics, nothing has changed the patronage system, which Bolsonaro is going to have to master very quickly to advance his agenda.”