BlackRock: Another hike is likely, but ECB walks a tightrope

BlackRock: Another hike is likely, but ECB walks a tightrope

12 juni 2026

Rente ECB

Ann-Katrin Petersen, Chief Investment Strategist at the BlackRock Investment Institute, comments on the ECB interest rate decision:

It’s less conversation and more action from the ECB. We’d argue today’s well-telegraphed hike is a show of credibility: policymakers want to look steadfast in their commitment to price stability amid lingering inflation risks. It’s a measured recalibration – a hike that would have been appropriate in any of the ECB’s updated scenarios. Interest rates are still within the neutral range that neither restricts nor stimulates economic growth.

Worries of inflation surging further – owing to the Middle East supply shock – aren’t fading. Little sign of a lasting resolution so far has seen short-term inflation expectations tick up and made companies more willing to raise prices. Some extra fuel to the fire: a shrinking workforce and slightly looser fiscal policy. Even though another hike is on the cards, the ECB walks a tightrope. They’re less willing to “look through” energy-driven inflation, yet careful to avoid overcommitting as ECB President Christine Lagarde’s comments made clear.

We remain neutral on euro area government bonds. Absent a de-escalation in the conflict, the risks are skewed towards higher and more volatile long-term yields.

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