Amundi: We expect a 25 bps precautionary hike in June

Amundi: We expect a 25 bps precautionary hike in June

8 juni 2026

Rente ECB

Prior to the ECB meeting, Alessia Berardi, Head of Global Macroeconomics at Amundi Investment Institute comments:

“The European Central Bank (ECB) may find arguing inflation is derailing from its baseline easier than justifying a hawkish hold. We therefore expect a 25 basis points (bps) precautionary hike in June, to be replicated in Q3 2026, conditional on data release.  The data currently available is indeed insufficient to assess the magnitude or persistence of the shock from the Middle East conflict, while higher input costs are not being fully passed through to final prices and demand pressure remains weak.  Our projections currently rule out a return to lower rates in 2027 following the mild hikes we expect for 2026, as we see core CPI remaining around 2.5%.”

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