The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast suggests that US economic growth may have accelerated to 3.5% in Q2 from around 2% in Q1, though it was revised slightly down from 3.7%. But anyway, corporate earnings clearly hint at resilience. With 63% of S&P 500 companies having reported so far, 84% have posted a positive EPS surprise and 81% a positive revenue surprise, according to FactSet.

Banks and tech companies did particularly well in Q1 – on both sides of the Atlantic. European oil companies have navigated the Middle East chaos and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz gracefully, while the picture for US players such as ExxonMobil and Chevron is more mixed. Both reported earnings last Friday and beat expectations, but their profits fell in Q1 due to the Iran war disruptions.

The reason for this divergence is that US and European oil giants play a different game: Europeans are not just oil producers, they are also major traders. So when disruption hits key routes like the Strait of Hormuz and prices jump, they can profit from the chaos by moving oil around and capturing price gaps, whereas US firms rely more on steady production, and weaker volumes appear to weigh on profitability as the trading upside is missing.

In simple terms, oil company results weren’t just about higher prices, but about who could turn volatility into profits. And in Q1, Europeans did better – which is relatively rare.

That said, Exxon and Chevron couldn’t hold on to their better-than-expected results and gave back pre-market gains to finish the session more than 1% lower. For those who don’t like oil price volatility but still want exposure, oil majors remain an interesting play, with European companies standing out in the current context.

Crude oil kicked off the week slightly lower on news that the US would begin guiding ships not involved in the Iran conflict. But geopolitical uncertainty and hectic diplomacy suggest that price volatility will persist. OPEC met over the weekend –without the UAE for the first time in decades – and announced a slight increase in production quotas.

However, with many members struggling to move oil due to near-closure conditions in the Strait of Hormuz, the decision is unlikely to impact short-term price dynamics. In the longer run, more supply should mean lower prices, but for now the global economy will continue to grapple with high energy costs.

Spirit Airlines shut down entirely after failing to secure funding or a bailout following years of losses, worsened by a spike in fuel costs linked to the Iran war.

Nonetheless, Asian indices kicked off the week with strong optimism. Japan was closed, but the Kospi rallied more than 4.5% to a fresh all-time high on AI enthusiasm, while TSMC surged nearly 7% in Taiwan. SoftBank – which was hit last week by news that OpenAI had not met internal targets due to rising competition – rebounded nearly 4% on Friday.

Nasdaq futures are also leading gains this morning after the index reached a fresh all-time high last week, supported by strong cloud growth from Google, Amazon and Microsoft – seen as a clear sign of accelerating AI adoption.

This week, earnings will continue to flow, with AMD and Arm Holdings in focus for the semiconductor space. The sector has had a stellar month, with VanEck’s semiconductor ETF gaining nearly 40%. Results are expected to be strong, but whether they beat expectations will be key for the continuation of the rally.

On the economic calendar, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hike rates tomorrow to rein in rising inflationary pressures – a hawkish divergence that helps justify the bullish trend in AUDUSD above the 0.72 level.

The US dollar, on the other hand, is flat this morning. US jobs data will be the key macro event this week, with forecasts diverging. Bloomberg consensus suggests around 73K new nonfarm jobs last month, though estimates vary widely.

The path of US monetary policy – and elsewhere – will depend on incoming data. European central banks remain focused on inflation, given their single mandate, while the Federal Reserve (Fed) operates under a dual mandate. This means that despite rising inflation risks, weak jobs data could revive dovish Fed expectations.

If that happens, the tech sector could attract further inflows – not only because of cost efficiencies partly due to job cuts, but also because softer labour data could lead to lower rates.

In that environment, bad news may once again be interpreted as good news, and swimming against this tide – betting on a correction right now – looks like a losing bet, even as we move through May.