Outlook 2026: Luke Barrs (GSAM)

24 december 2025

Vooruitzichten

Door Luke Barrs, Chief Business and Client Officer for Fundamental Equity, Goldman Sachs Asset Management

What are the main opportunities and threats for 2026?

‘Looking ahead to 2026, we see several compelling opportunities and potential threats across global equity markets.

In the US, the ‘Magnificent 7’ companies continue to demonstrate strong earnings. Beyond these tech giants, we see enterprise AI adoption accelerating across automation, customer engagement, and operational intelligence, creating opportunities including for integration platforms. Small-cap stocks in defense, technology, consumer sectors, and healthcare may offer growth potential, though higher volatility demands skilled active management.

European markets show promise through increased capital spending driven by fiscal flexibility and reindustrialization, particularly in defense, energy, and financials. Japan benefits from moderating inflation, stable monetary policy, and potential fiscal support, with global megatrends in AI and semiconductors providing additional tailwinds. Emerging markets trade at approximately a 40% forward P/E discount to US equities, below long-term averages, suggesting this valuation gap may narrow given strong earnings profiles.

However, several threats warrant attention. Performance among the ‘Magnificent 7’ is showing signs of greater dispersion rather than uniform strength, requiring careful monitoring of core business health as these companies aggressively invest in AI. Smallcap opportunities, while promising, carry higher volatility and liquidity risks that demand skilled active management to distinguish quality businesses from pockets of thematic exuberance. Additionally, for Japan, domestic politics and currency fluctuations will require close monitoring despite otherwise positive fundamentals.’