Aberdeen: UK inflation has not yet peaked

Aberdeen: UK inflation has not yet peaked

17 september 2025

Inflatie Verenigd Koninkrijk

Luke Bartholomew, Deputy Chief Economist at Aberdeen, comments on the UK inflation figures released this morning:

'Despite being well ahead of the inflation target, the Bank of England will take some comfort in the fact that inflation came in largely as expected and because underlying inflation pressures look to be very slowly fading. However, food price growth remains elevated, which policymakers are concerned could cause wider inflation expectations to bleed higher. Inflation is likely to move a little higher in the near term, peaking around 4%. With that backdrop, there is little doubt that the Bank will keep interest rates on hold tomorrow. Perhaps more interesting is what the Bank decides on its quantitative tightening (QT) policy, which is likely to involve scaling back the pace of QT to around £70 billion, which might provide some modest support to the gilt market.'

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