Fidelity: Focus ECB op tempo PEPP-aankopen

Fidelity: Focus ECB op tempo PEPP-aankopen

8 maart 2021

ECB
europese centrale bank (ECB).png

Dit is een vooruitblik van Anna Stupnytska, econoom bij Fidelity International, op de ECB-vergadering van aanstaande donderdag.

The main focus for the ECB in the upcoming meeting will undoubtedly be the tightening in financial conditions seen over the past couple of weeks, mostly driven by the surge in yields globally. In light of ECB's recent shift in communication, focusing on maintaining "favourable financing conditions", we expect the ECB to respond to the recent tightening by increasing the pace of PEPP purchases, although the exact weekly amount is unlikely to be announced. We expect the programme's flexibility to be also used to adjust purchases across countries as required. In this respect, it's the rise of Italian yields that carries the most risk by far, especially if fast and disorderly - the ECB will likely lean heavily against that.

Recent comments from the ECB officials signal they are getting uncomfortable with the degree and speed of tightening as of late. This is understandable as it is US policies and recovery prospects that have been behind the rise in yields. While US domestic fundamentals supported by continued unprecedented policy stimulus look strong, the European picture is different. Vaccine roll-out, despite some acceleration of late, continues facing numerous roadblocks, and the fiscal impulse is much more modest, with the Recovery and Resilience fund not expected to start disbursements until later in the year. But while ECB action might help offset the unwarranted tightening to some extent, it's ultimately the Fed that might have to step in and put the lid on the global rise in yields in a more powerful way. We expect that to happen at some point, particularly if market adjustment becomes more rapid and disorderly.

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