WisdomTree: Global macro outlook - Trade truce or trade Armageddon?

WisdomTree: Global macro outlook - Trade truce or trade Armageddon?

26 november 2019

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Outlook vooruitzicht (09) koers omhoog koersgrafiek

Nitesh Shah, Director, Research, WisdomTree looks at the global macro outlook for 2020.

‘Our economic outlook for 2020 and beyond is hinged on whether the US and China reach a trade deal or not. If they fail to reach a deal, the global economy is likely to slide into a recession – the beginning of which is already started. However, we acknowledge that this is a Presidential election year in the US, and while President Trump is trying to deliver on his prior election promises (including tightening trade), he will be averse to tipping the economy into a recession at this pivotal point. He is likely to seek to get a deal done. But not too soon. Closer to the election, voters will remember him as the man who saved the US economy from the brink. However, this is a high-risk game. China is losing patience. China has already refused to acknowledge that they have reached what Trump declares is a ‘phase-one’ of a trade deal. A fall-out from such a high-risk game could be catastrophic for the global economy. We could rule out a soft-landing in such case.’

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