Probability & Partners: Will stablecoins become the new gold?
Door Yusi Wang, Senior Risk Consultant at Probability & Partners
In the volatile world of crypto, investors often look for assets that combine the benefits of blockchain, such as decentralization, privacy, and 24/7 availability, with reliable price stability. Stablecoins were created to meet this need. They act as a bridge between traditional financial systems and digital assets, removing the time and geographic constraints of conventional payments.
Major stablecoins like USDT and USDC run on public blockchains, such as Ethereum and TRON. Thanks to these blockchains running 24/7, transactions are settled almost instantly as soon as a block is confirmed, unlike traditional systems such as SWIFT, which can take several business days to complete cross-border payments. Additionally, while conventional international transfers can incur 5%–10% fees, sending stablecoins on efficient blockchain networks often costs less than $1 per transaction.
Stablecoins have also gained a reputation as a digital safe-haven asset. When prices of cryptocurrencies drop sharply (for example, more than 10% in a day in February 2026), investors often move funds into stablecoins like USDT or USDC. This allows them to maintain liquidity without converting to fiat currency or withdrawing to a bank, protecting their assets from extreme price swings. In regions with high inflation, stablecoins are increasingly used to safeguard wealth and preserve value.
What is driving the appetite for stablecoins?
In Europe, the transaction volumes and the number of authorized stablecoin issuers across Europe have been increasing in light of the implementation of MiCA (Markets in Crypto-Assets). Several major European banks are either issuing stablecoins or have joined consortium planning to launch them this year. One of the key motivations is to protect bank deposits, which remain an important source of funding for traditional banks.
At the same time, large global asset managers are moving into the stablecoin space. Their interest is less about funding and more about building tokenized financial infrastructure, with a focus on institutional clients. By integrating stablecoins with tokenized U.S. Treasuries, asset managers are moving traditional securities onto the blockchain, enabling global, allowing transactions and settlements to take place instantly on a global, 24/7 basis.
In the US, the GENIUS Act (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act) clarifies that compliant ‘payment stablecoins’ are not a security or commodity, but a legitimate instrument for payments and settlement. This clarification removes an important legal barrier for institutional participation. Following this development, BlackRock launched its first tokenized fund, the BlackRock USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL), on the public blockchain Ethereum in 2024 and later expanded it to several other blockchains. Through initiatives like this, real-world assets such as U.S. Treasuries are being tokenized, while experiments are underway to tokenize other assets, including real estate and private credit. As a result, stablecoins are gradually shifting from simple trading tools to core infrastructure for transferring and circulating real-world asset value (RWA).
How to ensure stablecoins remain stable?
1:1 backing with high quality liquid assets
The mechanism that maintains a stable value is that for every stablecoin created, the issuer is supposed to keep assets of equal value in reserve (for instance, cash or government bonds). This means that people should be able to exchange their stablecoins for fiat currency at any time. For example, when more people want USDT, the issuer creates more tokens and adds more assets to its reserves. When demand goes down, the issuer destroys some tokens and releases the reserves.
Not all stablecoins work this way. The algorithmic stablecoin TerraUSD (UST) attempted to maintain a stable value through algorithms and arbitrage rather than holding traditional real assets. When confidence collapsed in May 2022, huge amounts of UST were redeemed, which caused its price to crash and triggered a death spiral. The design ignored a critical problem: without market confidence or actual asset backing, stability mechanisms can fail under extreme volatility.
Enhanced regulatory and compliance framework
The MiCA regulation establishes one of the most comprehensive regulatory frameworks for stablecoins globally and significantly strengthens consumer protection mechanisms. In addition to requiring a 1:1 reserve backing, MiCA mandates that the assets held in reserve be segregated from the issuer’s own operational funds. This separation ensures that the reserve assets remain protected and available to meet redemption requests, even if the issuer encounters financial difficulties.
Furthermore, MiCA guarantees a permanent right of redemption for stablecoin holders. Token holders must be able to redeem their tokens directly with the issuer at par value (or the equivalent value of the referenced assets) at any time, subject to reasonable conditions disclosed in the white paper. This mechanism is intended to maintain confidence in stablecoins and ensure that their value remains closely aligned with the underlying reference asset.
For stablecoin issuers, a number of strict requirements must be met before they can obtain authorisation. An investment firm or asset management firm cannot issue an e-money token (EMT) unless it already holds either a credit institution licence (for instance, a banking licence) or an electronic money institution (EMI) licence. If an entity holds neither licence, it must decide which authorisation to pursue. In practice, obtaining an EMI licence is typically the more common route for EMT issuers.
Even if an entity is already licensed as a bank or EMI, it cannot simply begin issuing EMTs. The institution must formally notify its supervisor, the Dutch central bank (DNB), and submit a white paper that provides comprehensive information about the e-money token, including its design, the underlying technology, and the associated risks. This process must be completed in accordance with MiCA requirements and the application procedures established by DNB.
The dawn of a global payment infrastructure
The story of stablecoins is still unfolding. Regulations are taking shape, technology continues to improve, and new use cases are emerging every day. In the coming years, we can expect central bank digital currencies and stablecoins both competing and coexisting. More real-world assets could move on-chain, and autonomous transactions between smart agents may become part of everyday finance.
While stablecoins are growing beyond the crypto world and becoming part of the systems that power global payments, we will need to wait and see how quickly these developments unfold in this dynamic financial system, which is shaped not only by technology and regulation, but also by geopolitics, monetary policy, and competition among market players. In the end, their value comes down to one thing: stability.