Monex: Uitstel Brexit - maar voor hoelang?


Monex: Uitstel Brexit - maar voor hoelang?

Hieronder volgt een commentaar in het Engels van Bart Hordijk, valuta-analist bij Monex Europe, op de stemming in het Lagerhuis voor uitstel van de Brexit.

Yesterday, sterling pared some of its gains made this week as May jostled to get an extension in Article 50. The result was a win for the government with a 212 majority in favour of an extension in the Brexit timeline. The question for May now is how long the extension will be. The answer rests firmly in the decision by the Democratic Unionist Party on whether they will now rally behind Mays withdrawal deal or not. Should the DUP finally roll over, many of the eurosceptic MP’s may find rejecting the deal a hard sell to their constituencies.

 For this reason, the DUP’s decision carries substantially more votes than the 10 MPs within their party. If a deal is pushed through next week in a third meaningful vote, May will request a short extension to A50 such that the legal framework of her deal can be finalised. This would undoubtedly be the best case for sterling now as it awaits the signal to push back towards fair value. However, if the third meaningful vote fails to obtain a majority in Parliament, the length of any extension remains ambiguous and the uncertainty could cause sterling to soften in the short-term.

 

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