Onderstaand het commentaar van Paul Flood, portfolio manager bij BNY Mellon Global Multi-Asset Income Fund over de arrestatie van Meng Wanzhou, CFO van Huawei en de gevolgen hiervan.
“The optimism investors had for a resolution to the US China trade relations was short lived after Canadian authorities arrested Meng Wanzhou, Huawei’s Chief Financial Officer, in Vancouver on reported charges of violations to US sanctions and faces extradition to the US. Investors immediately priced in a deterioration to the trade relations pushing Asian markets down heavily on the open. US futures are also down heavily on the news.
“With the Federal reserve easing rate expectations bonds have been performing well. We now have an inversion in the yield curve, with two year treasuries yielding less than five year treasuries. Investors will be closely monitoring the difference between two and ten year treasuries as it is a more effective indicator of a recession. On average a recession follows an inversion of the yield curve two years after. However, a trade war could quite easily bring this forward.”