MFS: ECB verhoogt rente met minimaal 50 basispunten

MFS: ECB verhoogt rente met minimaal 50 basispunten

Rente ECB
ECB (07)

“Het basisscenario is dat de ECB de rente met 50 basispunten verhoogt, maar een verhoging van 75 punten is – gezien de hawkish geluiden van de afgelopen weken – ook niet onwaarschijnlijk”, blikt Annalisa Piazza, obligatieanalist bij vermogensbeheerder MFS, vooruit op de ECB-vergadering deze week. Hoewel het debat donderdag verhit zal zijn, ziet zelfs de dovish minderheid van de ECB het belang in van verdere monetaire verkrapping om een negatieve inflatiespiraal op de middellange termijn te voorkomen, aldus Piazza.

Dat gezegd hebbende suggereren data over de reële economie toch dat de storm op de markt al iets is gaan liggen. Bovendien bleek uit de Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices dat de nominale inflatie in november van 10,6% naar 10% ging. Maar de kerninflatie blijft steken op 5%, wat volgens Piazza kan betekenen dat de piek in de onderliggende inflatiedruk nog niet bereikt is. Totdat er een daling is in de vraag blijven bedrijven de stijgende kosten doorberekenen aan de consument. De behoefte om winstmarges enigszins stabiel te houden is sterker dan de angst voor een recessie. Vermogensbeheerder MFS voorziet dat deze trend begin 2023 tot stilstand komt door de vertraagde wisselwerking tussen nominale en kerninflatie.

Zie hieronder het volledige commentaar.

"The baseline scenario is for a 50bp hike but risks of a 75bp hike are non-trivial, especially if we take into account all the hawkish messages that have been delivered by a large part of the ECB Governing Council members over the past few weeks. The debate within the Governing Council on the size of the December hike is likely to be vivid but it seems that even the more dovish ECB members are now seeing the need for further normalization to avoid the negative inflation spiral to materialize in the medium term.

That said, recent data on the real economy confirmed the moderation story already flagged by sentiment indicators since mid-2022. In addition, the November flash HICP brought some welcome news with the decline in headline inflation from 10.6% to 10%. Some might highlight that core inflation remained sticky at 5%, showing limited evidence that underlying inflationary pressures have not peaked yet. Firms continue to pass through increasing costs on to consumers even if fears of a recession have intensified as they want to maintain some stability in their profit margins until they see a considerable decline in demand. We expect the current trend to come to a halt in early 2023 as the lagged transmission between headline and core inflation usually work both on the upside and the downside.

The significant deterioration in lending conditions is also a good reason for the ECB to enter the second stage of its hiking cycle, with a smaller hike after the sharp front-loading since the summer. The ECB Q3 Lending survey suggested a large deteriorating in financial conditions, with bank lending rolling over and risks of a deep contraction in the economy led by a more compromised banking sector. Risks of a deep recession in Europe are still limited but we see now more convergence between hard and soft data, suggesting the slowdown in activity is real.  

Developments in core inflation in the first half of 2023 will be crucial in determining how much the ECB will need to go in restrictive territory next year to tame underlying inflationary pressures in the medium term. As it stands, we expect terminal rates at around 3%.

From a market perspective, European markets have started to price in more risks of a mild recession going forward and core EMU curves continued their bull flattening bias over the past few weeks. Given the ECB’s unlikely shift to a more dovish bias, we rule out that the short end of the curve will start to price in any rate cuts in the near term. As such, the flattening bias is expected to be confirmed, both in a bear correction or in a continuation of the recent rally in DM yields."