Monex: EUR/USD houdt stijgende lijn vast - marktoptimisme zet dollar lager

Monex: EUR/USD houdt stijgende lijn vast - marktoptimisme zet dollar lager

Valuta
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Hieronder volgt een kort commentaar in het Engels van Ima Sammani, valuta analist bij Monex Europe op de Amerikaanse dollar, euro en het Britse pond.

EUR
Whereas improved risk appetite can be a reason for the euro to perform worse compared to AUD, NZD and the Scandinavian currencies, the euro started today’s session in the green vs the majority of the G10 space as optimism about a global growth recovery supports the currency. The euro started the new year with fresh manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index figures from the Netherlands, Spain, Italy, France, Germany and the eurozone as a whole. The PMIs included a mixed batch of figures, with Spain, Italy, Germany and the eurozone printing figures just below expectations while the Dutch PMI exceeded the consensus provided by Bloomberg. All figures remained above the 50 level threshold for the first time since October. For the remainder of the day, the eurozone calendar is virtually blank, and all focus turns to German unemployment figures on Tuesday and services and composite PMI releases on Wednesday along with confidence indicators on Thursday. 

USD
The turn of the year comes with extended dollar weakness this morning as markets return for the first business day of 2021. The greenback is trading in the red against the entire G10 currency board this morning, with the dollar DXY index standing 0.46 percentage points lower over the 1-day window. Improved risk appetite seems to be the dominant factor in currency markets today. Although the risk-on mood may seem less evident with JPY trading almost at the bottom of the G10 basket following fears of an emergency state being announced for Tokyo, while sterling sits at the bottom of the pile as national lockdown measures are speculated upon. In the US, daily numbers soared to a record of nearly 300,000 in the weekend, but markets are looking through the short term risks and putting their focus on vaccine hope. The US government’s top infectious-disease doctor Anthony Fauci stated that the roll-out of Covid-19 vaccines is picking up speed and could be fully on track within a week, supporting the improvement in risk appetite. 

GBP
While broad USD weakness continues to be a dominating theme in markets, sterling is struggling to climb higher against a soft dollar. The release of no-deal Brexit risk and broad USD weakness over the Christmas period allowed GBPUSD to rally some 2.36% since December 23rd, despite thin liquidity conditions in markets. However, the prospect of further lockdown measures being implemented despite four-fifths of England being subject to the tightest tier 4 conditions already is weighing on sterling’s ability to climb against the soft dollar today. The pound actually trades as the worst G10 currency against the dollar today, likely due to the increased risk from the domestic Covid-19 outbreak and expectations of a tightening in measures.