Monex: Positief gestemde markten zetten EUR/USD hoger

Monex: Positief gestemde markten zetten EUR/USD hoger

25 november 2020

Valuta
Geld dollar en euro (1).jpg

Hieronder volgt een kort commentaar in het Engels van Ranko Berich, Head of Research bij Monex Europe op de Amerikaanse dollar, euro en het Britse pond.

EUR
The euro is trading on the front foot this morning, rallying against all G10 currencies with the exception of the Scandies. The European Central Bank’s Yves Mersch signalled to markets that the Pandemic Emergency Purchasing Programme is a good candidate for a potential extension, with the consequences of the pandemic probably having a longer duration than foreseen when the central bank took the latest calibration decisions in the summer, he said in an interview with the FT. He also mentioned that eurozone banks may be able to resume dividend payments next year if their balance sheets survive the pandemic. Meanwhile, the EU’s top diplomatic signalled the possibility of tougher sanctions against Ankara over its eastern Mediterranean activities. EU leaders will discuss the issue during their December 10-11 meeting, which is when the Hungarian-Polish veto on the EU budget and recovery fund conditions will also be tackled. The euro may be pressured in the buildup to the EU summit, while the upside remains capped as the success of the EU budget and recovery fund had already been priced in the euro over the summer when the deal was struck. With the economic calendar being light today, all focus turns to the UK Spending Review and US data in the later trading session.
   
USD
After a brief hiatus in the wake of strong survey data on Monday, dollar weakness was back with a vengeance as a theme for currency markets yesterday, with the euro, Canadian dollar and several other major currencies making new highs against the greenback. US equities remained frothy, with the S&P 500 index reaching a fresh record high. Yesterday’s data releases included an astonishing 6.6% jump in the S&P Case Siller house price index in September, the biggest increase in 6 years. Covid-induced pent-up demand was a likely contributor to the spike in prices, as was the latest wave of monetary easing from the Federal Reserve. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to 96.1 in November, however - indicating a possible future cooling in households’ willingness to take larger mortgages. With Thanksgiving tomorrow, today’s data calendar is packed. 
   
GBP
Sterling was well poised to jump on the back of another bout of USD weakness yesterday. GBPUSD floated 0.27% higher as the dollar traded soft across the G10 space, with little data of note released beyond the CBIs retail sales report. Today, sterling’s calendar is substantially fuller as the Chancellor of the Exchequer is set to announce the latest fiscal snapshot to lawmakers after Prime Ministerial questions at 11:50-12:30 GMT. Rishi Sunak is reportedly going to set out a £4.3bn plan to tackle mass unemployment in today’s budget announcement, with £2.9bn reserved to fund a programme aimed at creating one million jobless people find new roles. Alongside the Treasury’s announcement, the Office for Budget Responsibility’s latest report is expected to show a £40bn hole in the government’s finances that is expected to be plugged with higher taxes. The specifics of any financing plan may be announced today by Sunak just after mid-day, meaning sterling may trade in a docile manner this morning as the big event approaches.

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