JP Morgan: Increased testing partly explains rise in European Covid-19 cases

7 september 2020

However, more tests are being done compared with earlier in the year. By looking at the percentage of tests which are positive we can get a better idea of the extent of the recent rise in infections in each country. The World Health organization cautions against reopening economies if the positivity rate for tests is above 5%. Of Europe’s large economies, only Spain has breached that level. While cases in Germany and the UK have risen, so far that appears to be mostly due to increased testing, with positivity rates remaining low. For investors concerned about the potential for a winter wave of infections, it’s worth monitoring the progress of positivity rates. Thankfully, they remain relatively low in most parts of Europe.

Percentage of Covid-19 tests that are positive, 7-day moving average