DWS: Amerikaanse arbeidsmarktcijfers blauwdruk voor snel herstel

DWS: Amerikaanse arbeidsmarktcijfers blauwdruk voor snel herstel

Verenigde Staten
Christian Scherrmann (photo archive DWS)

Christian Scherrmann, Econoom Verenigde Staten bij DWS, reageert op de meest recente Amerikaanse arbeidsmarktcijfers.

“Another strong employment report in June follows the surprise in May as the economy was set on a path towards re-opening. The official unemployment rate decreased to 11.1% from 13.3%, the measurement error was reported at 1%. The participation rate increased somewhat to 61.5% from 60.8%; once again people outside the labor force found their way back. Non-farm payrolls increased by 4.8 million, mostly concentrated in high intensive contact services like leisure & hospitality, health care & social assistance and retail trade. Hiring in manufacturing was below expectations at 356,000 from 250,000. Similar to the pattern we saw in May, there was a monthly decline of average hourly earnings of 1.2%. This indicates that hiring was once again heavily skewed towards low-wage jobs. Total employment is still at round about 10 percentage points below February levels, but today’s report could provide a blueprint of a fast recovery - once the pandemic is under control. This, however, is not the situation we are living in. Rising infection rates most probably will soon require limited re-introductions of measures to fight the virus at the level of various heavily effected states. Indeed, quite a few such measures, closing bars in Texas and Florida, or delaying the re-opening of indoor dinning in New York City, for example, have already been announced. That will put another round of pressure on the positive employment trends. As long as there is no final resolution of the pandemic, the economy might face a prolonged situation of moving back and forth in terms of lockdown measures. This implies a more structural impact as it is likely some businesses will not survive such a bumpy ride. The consequence of this would not just be a slower recovery but also a higher structural unemployment rate.”