ASI: Lagarde hint op langere pauze ECB-beleid

ASI: Lagarde hint op langere pauze ECB-beleid

ECB
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Hierbij het commentaar van Paul Diggle, econoom bij Aberdeen Standard Investments, op de ECB-bijeenkomst van vandaag:

‘De ECB heeft haar beleidskoers niet gewijzigd en heeft een min of meer een ongewijzigde verklaring over het monetaire beleid gegeven. De focus lag vandaag vooral op de toon van Christine Lagarde's eerste persconferentie als president van de ECB. Ze is iets positiever gestemd over de groei en inflatie; klonk iets voorzichtiger over de negatieve gevolgen van negatieve rentes; lobbyde bij regeringen om het begrotingsbeleid te versoepelen en gaf een voorproefje van hoe de strategie van de ECB kan worden aangepast.’

Het volledige commentaar van Paul Diggle vindt u hieronder:

·         No policy changes: The ECB left the deposit rate at -0.4%; asset purchases at E20bn/month; and the forward guidance continues to suggest that rates will remain on hold and QE purchases continue until the ECB has seen ‘the inflation outlook robustly converge’ with its target. All this was entirely in line with consensus and market expectations.

·         But a slightly more upbeat tone on the economic outlook: Lagarde presented a slightly more upbeat assessment of the economic outlook, noting signs of ‘some stabilisation in the economic slowdown’, “a mild increase in inflation”, and “less pronounced” downside risks. We share her assessment that, despite a continued contraction in Eurozone industrial production, there are early signs that the sharp downswing in the manufacturing sector is starting to draw to an end.

·         A mixed bag in terms of forecasts revisions: Nevertheless, the ECB staff macroeconomic projections actually saw the GDP forecast revised lower, but the inflation forecasts revised a touch higher. Importantly, the 2022 forecasts were published for the first time, and foresee HICP inflation of 1.6% in 2022. For some members of the Governing Council, this will be consistent with the inflation target. Lagarde said this was heading in the right direction but was not consistent with the target. To us, this means additional easing in 2020 is required. But Lagarde’s focus on the direction of travel, not just the level of inflation, hints at extended pause in ECB policy from here.

·         More cautious on the negative consequences of negative rates: Lagarde was repeatedly questioned on the potential negative side effects of negative rates. Her answers confirmed market suspicions that she is more cautious than Draghi ever was on the downsides of very loose monetary policy. Nevertheless, Lagarde was clear that policy has not reached a ‘reversal’ rate.

·         Over fiscal policy: As expected, Lagarde stepped up the already-strong pressure coming from the ECB on national governments to step up fiscal support. Our own forecasts incorporate a mild Eurozone fiscal tailwind in 2020, but we think that political-economy constraints still prevent a more meaningful fiscal expansion.

·         Looking ahead to the strategic review: Finally, Lagarde was keen to talk about the ‘overdue’ strategic review. It will begin in January, and complete before the end of the year, and reach out to a wide range of stakeholders. You can find our preview of the strategic review here. We expect a re-specified inflation target (from “below but close to 2%, to simply “2%”), as well as a rebooting of the ECB’s toolbox. But the bigger picture is that we think inflation will continue to fall short of either the current or new target.