Monex: Britse pond op hoogste punt ten opzichte van euro sinds 2017

Monex: Britse pond op hoogste punt ten opzichte van euro sinds 2017

9 december 2019

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Engelse pond.jpg

Hieronder volgt een commentaar in het Engels van Ranko Berich, Head of Research bij Monex Europe op de koersbewegingen van de euro, het Britse pond en de Amerikaanse dollar.

GBP

Sterling was by far the best performer against the US dollar last week, also reaching its highest level against the euro since 2017. This morning’s trading has seen the pound strengthen further after the weekend’s polls offered little reason to believe the Labour Party has gained enough momentum for voters to deliver a hung Parliament after Thursday’s General Election. A tracker poll released by Survation this morning for ITV, for example, shows the Conservatives with a whopping 14 point lead. The event will nonetheless be relevant for sterling, as the initial Brexit referendum and the 2016 US presidential election were both widely expected by pollsters to deliver different results. As a result, when the result of the election is confirmed, sterling is likely to see further volatility, although the size of the moves - and how long they will be sustained after the election - will be hard to predict.

EUR

The euro significantly pared back its rally against USD on Friday, but still closed higher against the greenback when compared to the beginning of the week. The catalyst for Friday’s losses was dismal German industrial output data. This week’s main focus will be Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting, the first for newly incumbent President Christine Lagarde. Although no policy will be announced, the tone of the meeting and any details on the ECB’s upcoming review of monetary policy strategy will be highly relevant for the single currency.

USD

Despite a positive surprise in Friday’s Nonfarm payroll release prompting a bout of USD strength, the greenback still remained in the red against the G10 as trade sentiment continues to dominate markets. The Nonfarm data saw the US labour market add 266,000 jobs, higher than the upper bound of the forecast range, while wage growth measures also proved to be resilient. The data proved sufficient to ease some of the market’s fears over the US economy slowing under the current blanket of tariffs, with wage growth being the pivotal measure as the US economy continues to be propped up by the consumer. However, the data point did little to reverse the dollar’s weekly losses as traders began to price in the probability of tariffs being imposed on $156bn consumer goods on Sunday 15th. Today, the greenback remains on the back foot as data released from China over the weekend shows signs that the trade war continues to take its toll at a time when global growth is tentative. China’s export levels fell by 1.1% YoY for November. Elsewhere, the FT broke the news that Beijing will focus on the removal of foreign computer technology from China in three years in order to reduce the nation’s reliance on foreign tech to boost the domestic industry. This week sees the last monetary policy announcement by the Federal Reserve in 2019 with analysts expecting the bank to keep rates on hold at 1.75% due to the uncertainty prevailing over the future of the US and China’s trade relationship.

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