Hieronder volgt een commentaar in het Engels van Bart Hordijk, valuta-analist bij Monex Europe, op de persconferentie van de ECB vanmiddag, waarbij ECB-president Draghi opvallend positief was, ondanks dat de groeiverwachting voor de eurozone naar beneden was bijgesteld.
ECB President Mario Draghi appeared to be in an almost buoyant mood – as far as this goes for the usual Bond-like stoicism of the central banker. As was expected, the growth outlook was adjusted slightly downwards for the Eurozone to 2% in 2018 (was 2.1% in June) and 1.8% in 2019 (was 1.9%) but on other relevant subjects he struck a cautiously upbeat tone.
Most importantly, inflation forecasts by the ECB were not adjusted downwards and remained at 1.7% annually for the coming three years. It was feared beforehand these would be lowered as well, as a slower growing economy in general means a decline in prices pressures as well. Showing some unexpected hawkish feathers in his usual dovish plume, he emphasized that the ECB’s confidence in inflation to move to the 2% ECB target has actually strengthened.
Additionally, he quite easily brushed aside concerns of contagion risks of emerging market woes to the Eurozone, stating that these risks are usually biggest for the economies that already have the weakest fundamentals. Protectionism remains the biggest risk factor for the Eurozone, but Draghi seemed to be in too good a mood today to dwell long on the subject.
Draghi may be one of the more dovish central bankers of the developed world, but even for him the glass was half full today, as he appeared to focus more on the positive risks for monetary policy this time.