Monex: Turkse lira keldert naar beneden


Monex: Turkse lira keldert naar beneden

Hieronder volgt een commentaar in het Engels van Bart Hordijk, valuta-analist bij Monex Europe, op de Turkse lira die tot wel 12% van haar waarde verloor en herinneringen aan de Russische roebel crisis van 1998 en de Argentijnse peso crisis van 2001 komen snel naar boven. De Turkse lira verloor dit jaar bijvoorbeeld al meer dan helft van haar waarde tegenover de dollar. De handel van deze morgen leek alle ingrediënten voor een valutacrisis in zich te hebben toen lira kopers verdwenen en er slechts lira verkopers overbleven. Erdogan, zijn minister van financiën en de Turkse Centrale Bank moeten NU iets doen om een volledige escalatie van deze valutacrisis te vermijden.

The Turkish delegation in Washington that failed to persuade the US to drop sanctions on top of a central bank that already seems incapable, or unwilling, to support the currency proved too much for Turkish lira this morning. The currency fell up to 12% and is falling so fast that a parachute is the first thing that comes to mind to prevent the Turkish lira smashing into the ground. This parachute could be a gigantic rate hike of at least 500 basis points to calm markets and show clear commitment of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey to support the currency. Another bandage to stop the lira from bleeding to death would be capital controls. The big elephant in the room however is President Recep Erdogan, who opposes both these measures.

It is time for Erdogan to face reality. In the past he relied on words to instil trust in the Turkish lira, and although trust is crucial in financial markets, if these words are not backed up by actions they remain empty phrases for which markets show no mercy. Promises of a new economic model by his finance minister and son-in-law Berat Albayrak already didn’t manage to convince markets that something has markedly changed in Turkish economic policy, showing that words have lost their power and now only actions count.

A painful admittance that his powers are outmatched by the forces of markets and that he may have misjudged the economic situation may be a lot to ask of the autocratic leader Erdogan, but the alternative is that the lira will meet the ground at terminal velocity; an impact that will damage the Turkish economy for years to come.

 

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