Hieronder volgt een korte reactie in het Engels van Bart Hordijk, valuta-analist bij Monex Europe, op de vandaag bekend gemaakte Amerikaanse producentenprijzen die fors gestegen zijn.
In one line: US Producer prices at 6 year high and may accelerate even further when the tariffs have their full impacts on supply chains.
US Producer Price Index moved up 3.4% on a 12 month basis, the steepest growth since November 2011, beating the expectations for the second month in a row. As the report concerns June, the impacts of the steel and aluminium tariffs that recently came into effect, are still hard to discern. Increases in prices for services for example contributed the most to the higher than expected price growth, not a rise in prices in goods, what you might expect if companies would be hoarding inputs en masse as they await the broadly announced tariffs to come into effect.
We know that when producers are forced to switch from cheap foreign inputs to more expensive domestic inputs, or face added tariffs to what they import, that prices paid of inputs are bound to increase. With producer prices already increasing at a multi-year record high pace, tariff induced inflation will only push producer inflation further into record territory. As producers need to pass the higher prices on to consumers, as lowering margins is not always possible, then consumer prices may receive an extra boost from the side of producers.
Today’s PPI numbers thus indicate that risks to the Consumer Price Index are tilted to the upside.